The bet being graded: the industry eventually comes to our number. Field moving toward us = win. Field moving away = against us. Every status is recomputed from the full archive on every build — nothing is hand-frozen — and calls can reopen as the gap changes. No call ever leaves this page silently.

Read a row like a position: our number is the thesis, the field's number is the market price, and a call wins when the market comes to our number. Us moving a player up is conviction, not evidence — only the field's movement scores.

Over the last 14 builds, 34% of our matured decided calls ended with the field moving toward us. Separately, among still-open matured calls, our toward-rate lift averaged 1.037x versus matched controls (a modest and noisy edge: lift ranged 0.91x–1.16x day to day). Targets on record: 50% / 1.5x.

Today's pre-registered daily reading (a single-day snapshot): 61 of 188 matured decided calls ended with the field moving toward us (32%). Separately, among still-open matured calls, the field moved toward 40 of 102 (39%) versus 75 of 188 matched controls (40%; 0.98x). We publish the daily number unchanged and read it through the trailing average, so one noisy build isn't mistaken for the record.