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"retired_we_backed_off", "streak_days": null, "streak_since": null, "valucast_now": 125, "valucast_then": 87 }, { "ahead_since": "2026-06-30", "bucket": null, "consensus_catch_up": null, "consensus_now": null, "consensus_then": 526, "days_tracked": 30, "identity_key": "691776_pitcher", "in_mlb": false, "initial_gap": 383, "name": "Josh Hartle", "status": "left_universe", "streak_days": null, "streak_since": null, "valucast_now": 134, "valucast_then": 143 }, { "ahead_since": "2026-06-30", "bucket": null, "consensus_catch_up": null, "consensus_now": null, "consensus_then": 422, "days_tracked": 30, "identity_key": "815552_pitcher", "in_mlb": false, "initial_gap": 234, "name": "Levi Sterling", "status": "left_universe", "streak_days": null, "streak_since": null, "valucast_now": 176, "valucast_then": 188 }, { "ahead_since": "2026-06-30", "bucket": null, "consensus_catch_up": null, "consensus_now": null, "consensus_then": 324, "days_tracked": 30, "identity_key": "804541_pitcher", "in_mlb": false, "initial_gap": 129, "name": "Gary Gill Hill", "status": "retired_we_backed_off", "streak_days": null, "streak_since": null, "valucast_now": 213, "valucast_then": 195 }, { "ahead_since": "2026-06-30", "bucket": null, "consensus_catch_up": null, "consensus_now": null, "consensus_then": 409, "days_tracked": 30, "identity_key": "682877_hitter", "in_mlb": false, "initial_gap": 181, "name": "Juan Brito", "status": "retired_we_backed_off", "streak_days": null, "streak_since": null, "valucast_now": 233, "valucast_then": 228 }, { "ahead_since": "2026-07-03", "bucket": null, "consensus_catch_up": null, "consensus_now": null, "consensus_then": 70, "days_tracked": 27, "identity_key": "699013_hitter", "in_mlb": true, "initial_gap": 57, "name": "Esmerlyn Valdez", "status": "resolved_called_up_or_graduated", "streak_days": null, "streak_since": null, "valucast_now": null, "valucast_then": 13 }, { "ahead_since": "2026-07-03", "bucket": null, "consensus_catch_up": null, "consensus_now": null, "consensus_then": 270, "days_tracked": 27, "identity_key": "694203_hitter", "in_mlb": true, "initial_gap": 255, "name": "Denzer Guzman", "status": "resolved_called_up_or_graduated", "streak_days": null, "streak_since": null, "valucast_now": null, "valucast_then": 15 }, { "ahead_since": "2026-07-03", "bucket": null, "consensus_catch_up": null, "consensus_now": null, "consensus_then": 138, "days_tracked": 27, "identity_key": "694378_hitter", "in_mlb": true, "initial_gap": 107, "name": "Jacob Gonzalez", "status": "resolved_called_up_or_graduated", "streak_days": null, "streak_since": null, "valucast_now": null, "valucast_then": 31 }, { "ahead_since": "2026-07-03", "bucket": null, "consensus_catch_up": null, "consensus_now": null, "consensus_then": 87, "days_tracked": 27, "identity_key": "694249_hitter", "in_mlb": true, "initial_gap": 30, "name": "Cole Carrigg", "status": "resolved_called_up_or_graduated", "streak_days": null, "streak_since": null, "valucast_now": null, "valucast_then": 57 }, { "ahead_since": "2026-07-04", "bucket": null, "consensus_catch_up": null, "consensus_now": null, "consensus_then": 434, "days_tracked": 26, "identity_key": "701771_hitter", "in_mlb": false, "initial_gap": 146, "name": "Billy Amick", "status": "retired_we_backed_off", "streak_days": null, "streak_since": null, "valucast_now": 306, "valucast_then": 288 }, { "ahead_since": "2026-07-14", "bucket": null, "consensus_catch_up": null, "consensus_now": null, "consensus_then": 406, "days_tracked": 16, "identity_key": "695721_pitcher", "in_mlb": false, "initial_gap": 301, "name": "Gage Ziehl", "status": "left_universe", "streak_days": null, "streak_since": null, "valucast_now": 104, "valucast_then": 105 } ], "definitions": { "compliance_fix_2026_07_12": "pre-publish, disclosed: headline decided_rate/control_lift had been computed on the all-calls cohort, contradicting the registered maturity rule; pinned to the matured cohort before first publish (that day: decided rate 24.6% -> 28.7%, lift 1.36x -> 1.31x)", "control_band": [ 0.8, 1.25 ], "controls_per_call": 5, "decided_rate": "wins (open_toward + closed_caught_up) / (wins + open_away + retired_we_backed_off), matured cohort only", "frozen": "2026-07-02, pre-registered before the publish gate", "headline_cohort": "calls at least 14 days old (registered maturity rule); younger decided calls surface in summary.immature_decided", "maturity_days": 14, "noise_floor": "max(10 spots, 15% of the call's initial gap)", "one_sided_note": "conservative: only credits the field coming toward ValuCast, never widening-right calls", "retreat_attribution": "divergence closes -> whichever side moved more; ties count against ValuCast", "stabilized_2026_07_13": "ADDITIVE, pre-registered forward: the daily metric re-rolls against the latest board each build and a single reading swings wide (7/12 lift 1.31x vs 7/13 1.00x). summary.stabilized reports the trailing 14-build mean and min/max of the SAME daily numbers, replayed from the committed archive. The frozen daily scoring is unchanged; this only summarizes it so a noisy single day isn't read as a track record." }, "funnel": { "closed_caught_up": 11, "left_universe": 4, "open_away": 34, "open_flat": 56, "open_toward": 31, "resolved_called_up_or_graduated": 5, "retired_we_backed_off": 80 }, "gate": { "min_publish_horizon_days": 30, "min_publish_resolved": 25, "publishable": true, "reason": "ready" }, "generated_at": "2026-07-30T12:46:00.200259+00:00", "generated_by": "valucast", "signal_version": "0.3.0", "source_policy": { "dd_ranks_used": false, "dd_values_used": false, "enrollment_excludes_active_mlb_from": "2026-07-04", "external_rankings_used": false, "feeds_buy_score": false, "feeds_model_score": false, "feeds_public_rank": false, "inputs": "valucast_prospect_rank_v1_dated_archive", "kind": "valucast_ahead_of_consensus_scorecard", "market_values_used": false }, "status": "candidate_ready", "summary": { "control_lift": 0.92, "control_matured_rates": { "away": 55, "flat": 80, "mean_catch_up_spots": 7.2, "median_catch_up_spots": 0.0, "n": 198, "toward": 63, "toward_rate": 0.318 }, "control_rates": { "away": 55, "flat": 96, "mean_catch_up_spots": 6.7, "median_catch_up_spots": 0.0, "n": 214, "toward": 63, "toward_rate": 0.294 }, "decided_count": 153, "decided_rate": 0.275, "ever_flagged": 221, "first_call_date": "2026-06-13", "horizon_days": 47, "immature_decided": 3, "matured_open_rates": { "away": 34, "flat": 41, "mean_catch_up_spots": 1.7, "median_catch_up_spots": 0.0, "n": 106, "toward": 31, "toward_rate": 0.292 }, "open_count": 121, "open_rates": { "away": 34, "flat": 56, "mean_catch_up_spots": 1.5, "median_catch_up_spots": 0, "n": 121, "toward": 31, "toward_rate": 0.256 }, "stabilized": { "control_lift": { "max": 1.06, "mean": 0.956, "min": 0.89, "n": 14 }, "decided_rate": { "max": 0.319, "mean": 0.3, "min": 0.275, "n": 14 }, "min_readings": 7, "publishable": true, "readings": [ { "control_lift": 0.98, "date": "2026-07-17", "decided_rate": 0.307 }, { "control_lift": 1.04, "date": "2026-07-18", "decided_rate": 0.3 }, { "control_lift": 1.06, "date": "2026-07-19", "decided_rate": 0.303 }, { "control_lift": 1.0, "date": "2026-07-20", "decided_rate": 0.306 }, { "control_lift": 0.93, "date": "2026-07-21", "decided_rate": 0.313 }, { "control_lift": 0.92, "date": "2026-07-22", "decided_rate": 0.319 }, { "control_lift": 0.89, "date": "2026-07-23", "decided_rate": 0.302 }, { "control_lift": 0.89, "date": "2026-07-24", "decided_rate": 0.311 }, { "control_lift": 0.93, "date": "2026-07-25", "decided_rate": 0.313 }, { "control_lift": 0.97, "date": "2026-07-26", "decided_rate": 0.3 }, { "control_lift": 0.96, "date": "2026-07-27", "decided_rate": 0.29 }, { "control_lift": 0.96, "date": "2026-07-28", "decided_rate": 0.283 }, { "control_lift": 0.94, "date": "2026-07-29", "decided_rate": 0.28 }, { "control_lift": 0.92, "date": "2026-07-30", "decided_rate": 0.275 } ], "window_days": 14 }, "wins": 42 }, "targets": { "control_lift": 1.5, "decided_rate": 0.5, "usage": "pre-registered accountability targets, display-only; the model never optimizes toward this scorecard" } }