EARLY RESULTS: 2 DAYS AHEAD

Registered 2026-07-16 · protocol 030-v1 · updated JULY 30, 2026

Across 73 settled calls, ValuCast moved about 2 days before the public board. That is encouraging, but it is still too early to declare a win.

We timestamp each call and compare it with the public board. When the board later moves our way, we count how much earlier we were. When it moves against us, those days count against us. Calls we change and calls still waiting remain visible below — nothing disappears.

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Too early to call this a win. No call has reached its 60-day deadline yet, so unresolved calls cannot count as deadline losses before 2026-08-23. The result can still move either way.

Anticipation Score

+2d current median timing versus the public board

95% CI [-6, +12] days · n = 73 · provisional - no claim has reached its 60-day expiry

Compared with Aggregate public consensus (1 board) the public ranking we are measured against · it never changes our model score

39 Moved our way the public board later agreed

34 Moved against us the call went the other way · deadline losses start 2026-08-23

163 Calls we changed 55% of all registered calls

92 Still waiting not settled yet

294 claims registered · 73 scored into the pool · 221 excluded (clean retractions, benign expiries, still open) · 0 unscored or unclassified. Every registered claim appears in exactly one of these — the funnel partitions the whole pool.

ValuCast scores are computed without any consensus input; external source ranks are carried as context only and never feed the model. This independence is validator-enforced.