ValuCast

Deterministic · committed daily · publicly scored · free, no login

The outside prospect boards behind these gaps were last refreshed JUNE 30, 2026, past our 7-day freshness bar — the field's ranks may have moved since. We refresh boards on their own cadence, not daily.
CONSENSUS GAPS

WHERE WE DISAGREE

30 gaps · JULY 30, 2026

The prospects where the ValuCast board sits furthest from the public consensus (median of 3+ outside boards), in both directions. Every row is a testable claim: the higher side feeds the publicly scored ledger; fades are published but not ledger-scored yet — we say so rather than borrow credibility.

How this is scored

The field ranks come from outside boards last refreshed JUNE 30, 2026 — the divergence is measured against that vintage, not today's boards.

Gaps under 25 spots don't qualify, call-ups are excluded (boards delist them — that's eligibility, not disagreement), and one symmetric depth rule applies to both sides: our rank and the field's must sit inside the top 300. Deeper than that, a rank is a sample-size statement (ours) or past the boards' reliable depth (theirs) — not a price, so we don't publish it as a call.

WE'RE HIGHER 🔭

46 qualified · scored by the AOTC ledger.

#4
Tyler Bremner LAA · field #47–#233, median ~#65 across 5 boards
+61
#6
Hagen Smith CHW · field #57–#123, median ~#66 across 5 boards
+60
#18
Luke Adams MIL · field #10–#161, median ~#155 across 3 boards
+137
#8
Charlie Condon COL · field #30–#101, median ~#66 across 5 boards
+58
#24
Nelson Rada LAA · field #170–#296, median ~#193 across 3 boards
+169
#22
Owen Murphy ATL · field #86–#187, median ~#153 across 3 boards
+131
#16
James Tibbs III LAD · field #37–#106, median ~#95 across 4 boards
+79
#36
Cam Cannarella MIA · field #87–#275, median ~#206 across 3 boards
+170
#60
Brady Ebel MIL · field #90–#358, median ~#269 across 3 boards
+209
#14
Gage Wood PHI · field #31–#58, median ~#54 across 4 boards
+40
#64
Max Anderson DET · field #167–#515, median ~#235 across 3 boards
+171
#57
Blake Burke MIL · field #123–#242, median ~#184 across 3 boards
+127

WE'RE LOWER 🧊

38 qualified · published, not ledger-scored yet.

#271
Thomas White MIA · field #11–#150, median ~#22 across 5 boards
-249
#182
Mike Sirota LAD · field #12–#43, median ~#22 across 4 boards
-160
#196
Aidan Miller PHI · field #26–#31, median ~#30 across 4 boards
-166
#287
Andrew Fischer MIL · field #45–#79, median ~#55 across 3 boards
-232
#256
Travis Sykora WSN · field #37–#118, median ~#56 across 4 boards
-200
#267
Jhonny Level SFG · field #39–#79, median ~#63 across 5 boards
-204
#131
JoJo Parker TOR · field #22–#169, median ~#34 across 4 boards
-97
#197
Emil Morales LAD · field #40–#170, median ~#54 across 5 boards
-143
#190
Jonny Farmelo SEA · field #48–#244, median ~#65 across 5 boards
-125
#76
Caleb Bonemer CHW · field #17–#62, median ~#28 across 5 boards
-48

CLAIM LEDGER 🧾

Every disagreement above is logged as a dated claim and tracked until something settles it — a call-up, the field moving, us backing off, or the clock running out.

Every gap becomes a dated claim that must resolve or expire — both sides now, not just the higher one. Claims age out after 60 days if nothing settles them.

Open
still live, nothing has settled it yet
Resolved by call-up
the player reached the majors
Resolved by field move
the outside consensus came toward our rank
Retracted
we backed off the call ourselves
Expired
aged out after 60 days with no resolution

HIGHER claims · 140

  • 37 open
  • 4 resolved by call-up
  • 13 resolved by field move
  • 86 retracted (we backed off)
  • 0 expired unresolved

LOWER (fade) claims · 154

  • 55 open
  • 0 resolved by call-up
  • 22 resolved by field move
  • 77 retracted (we backed off)
  • 0 expired unresolved

Recently resolved:

Consensus is the same rounded-median, computed by the same code, from the same inputs as the AOTC badge, cards, and scorecard. Rebuilt nightly by the public data pipeline. Being different isn't being right; the ledger decides.