Deterministic · committed daily · publicly scored · free, no login

The outside prospect boards behind these gaps were last refreshed AUGUST 3, 2026, past our 7-day freshness bar — the field's ranks may have moved since. We refresh boards on their own cadence, not daily.

CONSENSUS GAPS

WHERE WE DISAGREE

30 gaps · SEPTEMBER 13, 2026

The prospects where the ValuCast board sits furthest from the public consensus (median of 3+ outside boards), in both directions. Every row is a testable claim: the higher side feeds the publicly scored ledger; fades are published but not ledger-scored yet — we say so rather than borrow credibility.

How this is scored

The field ranks come from outside boards last refreshed AUGUST 3, 2026 — the divergence is measured against that vintage, not today's boards.

Gaps under 25 spots don't qualify, call-ups are excluded (boards delist them — that's eligibility, not disagreement), and one symmetric depth rule applies to both sides: our rank and the field's must sit inside the top 300. Deeper than that, a rank is a sample-size statement (ours) or past the boards' reliable depth (theirs) — not a price, so we don't publish it as a call.

WE'RE HIGHER 🔭

41 qualified · scored by the AOTC ledger.

Tyler Bremner LAA · field #42–#301, median ~#69 across 5 boards

+65

#18

Luke Adams MIL · field #24–#151, median ~#142 across 3 boards

+124

Liam Doyle STL · field #22–#275, median ~#42 across 5 boards

+36

#37

Termarr Johnson PIT · field #226–#522, median ~#247 across 3 boards

+210

#32

Jonathan Santucci NYM · field #39–#205, median ~#199 across 3 boards

+167

#15

James Tibbs III LAD · field #35–#105, median ~#92 across 4 boards

+77

#38

Jesús Báez STL · field #158–#264, median ~#227 across 3 boards

+189

Jamie Arnold ATH · field #26–#270, median ~#52 across 4 boards

+43

#21

Owen Murphy ATL · field #74–#136, median ~#111 across 3 boards

+90

#34

Jurrangelo Cijntje STL · field #72–#363, median ~#136 across 4 boards

+102

#11

Charlie Condon COL · field #19–#118, median ~#41 across 5 boards

+30

#62

Nelson Rada LAA · field #165–#240, median ~#215 across 3 boards

+153

#56

Kahlil Watson CLE · field #132–#401, median ~#191 across 3 boards

+135

#39

Zach Root LAD · field #52–#135, median ~#133 across 3 boards

+94

#14

Gage Wood PHI · field #19–#48, median ~#44 across 5 boards

+30

WE'RE LOWER 🧊

42 qualified · published, not ledger-scored yet.

#266

Thomas White MIA · field #9–#122, median ~#21 across 5 boards

-245

#277

Mike Sirota LAD · field #8–#38, median ~#23 across 5 boards

-254

#296

Robby Snelling MIA · field #17–#111, median ~#34 across 5 boards

-262

#217

Alfredo Duno CIN · field #20–#97, median ~#25 across 5 boards

-192

#282

Bryce Rainer DET · field #25–#318, median ~#35 across 5 boards

-247

#232

Josuar Gonzalez SFG · field #28–#410, median ~#31 across 4 boards

-201

#77

Sebastian Walcott TEX · field #8–#95, median ~#13 across 5 boards

-64

#251

Kendry Chourio KC · field #29–#65, median ~#46 across 5 boards

-205

#238

Travis Sykora WSN · field #32–#109, median ~#48 across 4 boards

-190

#52

Theo Gillen TBR · field #8–#16, median ~#12 across 5 boards

-40

#222

Jonny Farmelo SEA · field #53–#123, median ~#59 across 5 boards

-163

#221

Jhonny Level SFG · field #37–#78, median ~#60 across 5 boards

-161

#193

Josue Briceño DET · field #35–#312, median ~#54 across 5 boards

-139

#123

JoJo Parker TOR · field #24–#141, median ~#37 across 5 boards

-86

#279

Ike Irish BAL · field #77–#277, median ~#86 across 4 boards

-193

CLAIM LEDGER 🧾

Every disagreement above is logged as a dated claim and tracked until something settles it — a call-up, the field moving, us backing off, or the clock running out.

Every gap becomes a dated claim that must resolve or expire — both sides now, not just the higher one. Claims age out after 60 days if nothing settles them.

Open: still live, nothing has settled it yet
Resolved by call-up: the player reached the majors
Resolved by field move: the outside consensus came toward our rank
Retracted: we backed off the call ourselves
Expired: aged out after 60 days with no resolution

HIGHER claims · 208

29 open
8 resolved by call-up
38 resolved by field move
124 retracted (we backed off)
9 expired unresolved

LOWER (fade) claims · 246

39 open
3 resolved by call-up
30 resolved by field move
143 retracted (we backed off)
31 expired unresolved

Recently resolved:

Emmanuel Rodriguez lower · called up — 3 days early · SEPTEMBER 12, 2026
Michael Arroyo lower · called up — 45 days early · SEPTEMBER 6, 2026
Ethan Salas lower · called up — 28 days early · SEPTEMBER 1, 2026
Lazaro Montes higher · called up — 12 days early · SEPTEMBER 1, 2026
Lazaro Montes higher · called up — 3 days early · SEPTEMBER 1, 2026
Luis Perales higher · called up — 4 days early · AUGUST 26, 2026
Hagen Smith higher · called up — 45 days early · AUGUST 8, 2026
Abimelec Ortiz higher · called up — 16 days early · JULY 12, 2026

Consensus is the same rounded-median, computed by the same code, from the same inputs as the AOTC badge, cards, and scorecard. Rebuilt nightly by the public data pipeline. Being different isn't being right; the ledger decides.